Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.040963 0.046310 0.052249 0.059363 0.067688 0.077167 0.088840
2025-12-28 0.032939 0.039629 0.047649 0.058070 0.071396 0.088056 0.110773
2026-01-04 0.027773 0.035270 0.044883 0.058330 0.077001 0.102543 0.141088
2026-01-11 0.023483 0.031284 0.041912 0.057821 0.081699 0.117355 0.176959
2026-01-18 0.020091 0.027954 0.039276 0.057337 0.086556 0.134139 0.222497
2026-01-25 0.017002 0.024567 0.036007 0.055331 0.088828 0.148047 0.269956
2026-02-01 0.014325 0.021392 0.032546 0.052377 0.088991 0.158906 0.317994
2026-02-08 0.012639 0.019510 0.030834 0.052063 0.093958 0.180918 0.402344
2026-02-15 0.011276 0.017951 0.029412 0.052015 0.099623 0.207093 0.514878
2026-02-22 0.010217 0.016752 0.028426 0.052623 0.107032 0.240961 0.676165
2026-03-01 0.009291 0.015655 0.027449 0.053074 0.114451 0.279109 0.889093
2026-03-08 0.008297 0.014299 0.025768 0.051698 0.117283 0.307138 1.100825
2026-03-15 0.007165 0.012564 0.023129 0.047770 0.112850 0.313267 1.241057
2026-03-22 0.006563 0.011771 0.022286 0.047848 0.119432 0.359599 1.647706
2026-03-29 0.006120 0.011234 0.021897 0.048972 0.129690 0.427299 2.320661
2026-04-05 0.005668 0.010623 0.021253 0.049332 0.138035 0.495829 3.199330
2026-04-12 0.005261 0.010052 0.020614 0.049581 0.146382 0.573554 4.446345
2026-04-19 0.004815 0.009344 0.019551 0.048423 0.149548 0.631577 5.787586
2026-04-26 0.004368 0.008584 0.018256 0.046321 0.148543 0.668878 7.123385
2026-05-03 0.004087 0.008161 0.017725 0.046397 0.156311 0.767293 10.118592
2026-05-10 0.003843 0.007794 0.017277 0.046644 0.165153 0.886659 14.823750
2026-05-17 0.003645 0.007512 0.017009 0.047422 0.177005 1.048167 23.189719
2026-05-24 0.003458 0.007233 0.016707 0.048026 0.188660 1.232289 36.976698